Whether Mahagathbandhan wins or BJP, Rahul will only be remembered as a dignified extra in Bihar polls

Like a stylus stuck in the groove of a vinyl, Rahul Gandhi is still talking about suit and boot in Bihar. Is it then a big surprise that when almost the entire country is talking about the election in Bihar, not many care about the Congress vice-president’s campaign?

Rahul was in Motihari on Friday to seek votes for the Mahagathbandhan. That the Congress was able to muster resources and mobilise people would have come as a big relief for the Congress leader amidst reports that his party had desperately sought last-minute donations to issue advertisements announcing Gandhi’s visit.

Rahul spoke for a few minutes in the usual mix of faux anger and anti-Modi rhetoric he has now patented. He talked about broken promises, rising prices, intolerance; criticised Modi for his lies and speeches unbecoming of a PM and then returned to his favourite theme: suit-boot ki sarkar, promising that there would be none of it in Bihar.

With half the election in Bihar over, it is not difficult to see that Rahul has been near-absent from the campaign. Compared to Modi who is almost camping in Bihar and Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav combine’s a- dozen-rallies-a-day schedule, Rahul has made brief intermittent appearances. If Bihar were a multi-starrer, Rahul’s role could have been compared with that of a dignified extra.

Though the Congress has reconciled to its role as a junior partner in an alliance that is giving a tough fight to the BJP in Bihar, this election could be another setback to Gandhi’s dreams of making it big on the national stage regardless of the outcome. Whatever be the result, Gandhi and Congress will be the biggest losers.

If the Mahagathbandhan loses, the Congress will lose whatever little credibility it has as a national party in the Hindi belt. The morale of its workers will plummet further; the noises against the dynasty would grow louder and there would be no escaping the general impression that Modi has delivered a Congress-mukt Bharat.

But, what if the Mahagathbandhan wins? If Nitish Kumar wins, most of the credit will go to his clean image and sushashan; with the Congress getting credit only for not being the spoilsport by dividing the anti-BJP vote. By pitting Modi against Nitish Kumar, the BJP has already made the mistake of raising the Bihar CM’s political stature. If Nitish Kumar wins he will–like Modi after his 2012 win–become the rallying point for the opposition.

There are indications that such a front is taking shape. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is openly canvassing support for Nitish Kumar, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee has exhorted people to vote for him. Though the Odisha CM has not displayed his cards yet, he may not be averse to aligning with his counterparts from the eastern states, an idea he had toyed with in the past.

Politically, this could imply the coming together of four extremely popular leaders who control more than 100 Lok Sabha seats. Once this front starts taking shape, nobody can predict if the inveterate opportunist from Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav, would be able to deal with the temptation of being part of yet another third front. Once that happens, it would be a formidable alternative to the leaderless, rudderless Congress and a huge challenge to Gandhi’s claims of being the fulcrum of anti-Narendra Modi politics.

But the Congress is revelling in myopia because it still doesn’t have a long-term strategy. Gandhi is not known to be a shrewd strategist and most of his political decisions in the past have reflected immaturity.

Consider Bihar. During the past decade, the Congress has joined hands with Lalu Yadav’s party, separated, reunited and finally taken refuge under Nitish Kumar’s umbrella. The party’s ad-hocism has confused its workers and destroyed whatever was left of its vote bank.

In Delhi too the Congress committed political harakiri when it first supported Kejriwal–giving him the opportunity to perform–and then withdrew support, turning him into a martyr. Just because the Congress allowed Kejriwal a foot in the door, it has been virtually thrown out of the Capital, its vote bank completely devoured by the Aam Aadmi Party.

Gandhi may be happy claiming there would be no suit-boot ki sarkar in Bihar. But if Nitish Kumar wins the election, it is the Congress VP who could be booted out from the centre of anti-Modi politics.