Russian warplanes leave Syria, raising UN hopes for peace talks

The morning after Vladimir Putin ordered the surprise withdrawal of Moscow’s military contingent in Syria, Russia’s defence ministry said a first group of planes had left the Hmeymim airbase near Latakia.

Putin’s announcement that Russia’s objectives had been “generally accomplished” after five and a half months of bombing raids came in a televised meeting on Monday evening with his defence and foreign ministers. He ordered the former, Sergei Shoigu, to begin a withdrawal, and the latter, Sergei Lavrov, to work on intensifying diplomatic efforts to bring about peace.

In a series of tweets on Tuesday morning, the Russian defence ministry said aircraft would be relocated from the Hmeymim airbase in Syria to their home bases in Russia. State television showed footage of soldiers loading an Ilyushin-76 transport plane with equipment to be returned to Russia. An unspecified number of Su-34 fighter jets were among the first group to leave.

“Personnel are loading equipment, logistics items and inventory into transport aviation aircraft,” the defence ministry wrote, adding that Shoigu had ordered the “main part” of the contingent in Syria to be redeployed.

The first planes from Latakia landed at an airbase near Voronezh on Tuesday afternoon. Returning pilots were tossed in the air by celebrating crowds of comrades, with television crews on hand to capture the scenes and broadcast them to Russian homes as a sign of the mission’s success.

“We will carry out any command of our commander-in-chief at any point on the planet,” one unnamed pilot said on his return.

While state television covered the withdrawal with fanfare, the deputy defence minister suggested the bombing campaign was not over. At a ceremony to mark the withdrawal, Nikolai Pankov said the Russian planes remaining in Syria would continue to carry out missions.

“Certain positive results have been achieved. A real chance has emerged to put an end to this long-running standoff,” Pankov said, according to RIA Novosti. “But it is still early to talk about victory over terrorism. The Russian aviation group has the task to continue carrying out strikes on terrorist facilities.”

On Monday night, Putin telephoned Barack Obama to inform him of his decision, and the pair spoke about both Syria and Ukraine “in a constructive and frank manner”, according to the Kremlin.
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“The heads of state noted the importance of full coordination of efforts between representatives of Russia and the United States, including on military matters, to preserve the truce and provide humanitarian assistance to besieged towns, as well as effectively fighting terrorist groups,” said Moscow’s readout of the call.

The White House said the US president told Putin that he “welcomed the much-needed reduction in violence since the beginning of the cessation, but stressed that continuing offensive actions by Syrian regime forces risk undermining both the cessation of hostilities and the UN-led political process”.

Putin’s move was clearly designed to coincide with the start of Syrian peace talks in Geneva and will be seen as a sign that Russia believes it has done enough to protect President Bashar al-Assad’s regime from collapse.

The Russian decision, which caught the most senior peace negotiators in Geneva by surprise, has injected further impetus into the process.

Staffan de Mistura, the UN’s Syria envoy, welcomed Putin’s announcement as a significant development.

“We hope it will have a positive impact on the progress of the negotiations in Geneva aimed at achieving a political solution to the Syrian conflict and a peaceful political transition in the country,” he said.

Although western diplomats are wary of Putin’s sincerity and motives, they acknowledge that his decision will help strengthen the partial ceasefire – one of the building blocks to creating an environment of trust for the negotiators. They also sense it was a decision made in Moscow and relayed to Damascus in a way that makes clear Russia is the dominant partner in the relationship.

Some opposition delegates cried when they heard the news, in part because of the destructive effect of the Russian air campaign on daily lives but also because of its impact on the opposition’s bargaining hand at the negotiating table.

The opposition dared to hope that Putin’s move signalled a wider Russian decision, if not to abandon Assad, then at least to serve notice to Damascus that it will have to compromise in the talks, including on the critical issue of the powers and status of a transitional governing body that would take charge of Syria, pending elections of a new parliament and president in 18 months.

The role of Assad in this transitional body will become a major focus as talks progress, and assuming they do not fail. The negotiators will have to agree if he can stay in a titular role for an interim period.

A spokesman for the high negotiations committee – an umbrella group for the opposition – said on Tuesday: “Hearing is different from seeing things on the ground. We want to see an end not only to Russian troops but all foreign troops. We want to see an end to terrorism in Syria … It is a positive step if they [the Russians] are serious.”

Despite the Russian move, it is thought unlikely that De Mistura will move away from his policy of slowly building trust, and that he will continue to focus on securing agreement on easier issues. An early step may be the release of political detainees.

On Monday, the Syrian government delegation submitted a paper on the country’s future political structure. De Mistura is due to formally meet the opposition for the first time on Tuesday afternoon.

The UK has argued, sometimes with little supporting evidence, that Putin is not wedded to Assad personally but wants a veto over what happens in Syria. It also acknowledges that Putin wants to be seen as a major diplomatic player, and that means he is likely to follow the withdrawal with an intensified role in the diplomacy.

Philip Hammond, the UK foreign secretary, wrote on Twitter that the Russian move could be positive if it was part of a real commitment to a Syrian-led political transition and continuation of the cessation of hostilities.

The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, was the most senior western politician to express hope that Putin was now set to put pressure on Assad. He said: “If the announcement of a withdrawal of Russian troops materialises, this increases the pressure on President Assad to finally negotiate in a serious way in Geneva a political transition which maintains the stability of the Syrian state and the interests of all populations.”

Shoigu said Russian planes had made more than 9,000 flights during the campaign. While Russia has officially claimed to be fighting Islamic State, many of the attacks have targeted other opposition groups.

Putin has ordered that the Hmeymim airbase remain open with a limited contingent of Russian forces and be defended from “land, sea and air”, leading some to question whether the withdrawal might be more of a tactical gambit than a full wind-down of the Russian military presence.

The Syrian army said it would continue its operations against Isis, al-Qaida’s Syria branch and other militant factions that have been designated as terrorist groups by the UN “with the same tempo”.