Bihar impact in TN and Kerala: Setback for Modi in states where BJP has little presence, but big ambitions

The sweet taste of setting a new record in the Kerala local body polls would have likely turned bitter in the mouths of BJP leaders in the southern state on Sunday as Bihar gave a thumbs down to the ruling party at the Centre in a decisive verdict. Patna might well be 2,800 kilometres from Thiruvananthapuram, but the trouncing of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) up north has soured the mood in God’s own country, a state in which BJP president Amit Shah has taken a keen interest.

In a stunner of sorts, the BJP pulled off a coup in the state capital taking 34 of the 100 divisions of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, although it could not outdo the Marxist Communist-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) which won 42 seats out of 100. The BJP also managed to push the ruling Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to third place in six constituencies in the state. In what has been touted as a “semi-finals” to the Assembly polls in 2016, the BJP has done quite well for itself — a four-fold jump over its performance in the 2010 local body polls. But that was pre-Bihar. Analysts feel the mood is likely to change now that the Bihar verdict is out.

“The gung-ho mood about the BJP and Modi has vanished,” said MG Radhakrishnan, political analyst and senior journalist in Thiruvananthapuram. “The mood that these are the forces of tomorrow — that mood is gone. The best time for the BJP was pre-Bihar. If that can create only this much interest for the BJP in Kerala, how do you expect them to do any better now in the post-Bihar scenario? They were expected to do two or three percent better, but not much more than that. After Bihar it will only become worse,” he said.

The ruling Congress party is all smiles. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy told Firstpost that the people of Kerala will never accept the BJP. “This is a correct answer to the intolerance of the BJP leadership,” said Chandy. “We are now not following the tradition of our great country. Our country’s main tradition is tolerance towards everybody and every belief. But the BJP is very arrogant towards those who are against their views. This is a setback for the BJP no doubt, and I believe that this is the beginning of the end of BJP rule,” he said.

Chandy scoffs at the idea of any impact by the BJP in the state elections in 2016. “There is no impact at all,” he said. “BJP has contested more seats this time (in the local body elections) and to say they have made an improvement is not completely correct. Their best performance in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation was to win 34 seats. In the 2014 Parliamentary elections, the BJP got a lead in 52 divisions, but this election (local body polls) they won only 34 divisions. They have succeeded in showing their presence a little more this time. Only a very slight improvement is seen,” he said.

Radhakrishnan feels the interpretation of the BJP’s performance in the local body polls cannot be done simply by looking at the numbers. He says the BJP’s alliance with the SNDP (Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam, an influential Ezhava caste affiliated organisation) has not made much of a dent in places like Aleppey and Kollam, both of which are Ezhava dominated constituencies. “The BJP’s strategy is to target Ezhavas and Dalits,” said Radhakrishnan. “Ezhavas are the backbone of the Left party. People expected BJP and SNDP to destroy the Communists. But this did not work with the rank and file of the people. BJP did gain, but not very much,” he said.

Tamil Nadu is also an uphill task

In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the BJP’s task is even tougher. Taking on the two Dravidian behemoths was a mammoth task to begin with. After its best showing in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, with the motley alliance managing to win two seats in Kanyakumari and Dharmapuri, the BJP has lost its allies as well as its cohesion. The BJP’s highest ever voteshare in 2014 of five percent had given the party the confidence to take on the Dravidian forces of the ruling All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The loss of Bihar though is likely to put a dent in that confidence and in the party’s bargaining power in forming alliances ahead of 2016, say analysts.

“Now the BJP will literally have to go down on its knees in Tamil Nadu,” said C Lakshmanan, associate professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies in Chennai. “Until Sunday, they have had a larger-than-life image. But the Bihar election will have a very serious impact on the Tamil Nadu election and on alliance formation — who will ally with whom and on what terms. This will have a very significant impact,” he said.

The BJP too agrees that the Bihar verdict will hurt it, but the party is putting on a brave face so far. “It would have been a morale boost if there had been a victory, definitely,” said Tamilisai Soundararajan, state president of the Tamil Nadu BJP. “The cadre might be a little demoralised now, but the field is totally different in Tamil Nadu. Our cadre knows that these setbacks are only temporary. We have done well in the Bengaluru mayoral polls and also done quite well in the local body elections in Kerala. We are the only alternative to the two Dravidian parties in the state,” she added.

Trouble looms ahead for the party though. In a recent interview to The Hindu, an NDA ally in 2014, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) chief Vijaykanth said that he was not part of the BJP-led alliance in Tamil Nadu any longer. Other allies like Vaiko’s MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) and Ramadoss’ PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) had already fallen away shortly after the BJP came to power in the Centre. The BJP is now trying to woo a number of small caste-affiliated organisations across the state in an effort to stitch up a winning formula.

The DMK is exulting at the Bihar verdict. “In Bihar, the BJP did a big boost for Modi,” said KS Radhakrishnan, DMK spokesperson. “It has failed. The BJP is unable to maintain the image on which they came to power in 2014. Tamil Nadu is a land of social justice. Bihar elections will not affect us much since anyway BJP does not have much of a presence here. It is only due to the BJP at the Centre that people here even know about the BJP,” he said.

Critics of the BJP feel that the going will be tough for the party here on across all states. “All I can say is it bodes very well for Indian democracy,” said former West Bengal governor Gopalkrishna Gandhi. “What bodes well for India bodes well for all parts of the country,” he concluded.