Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to stopover in Lahore has echoes of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Pakistan diplomacy. It now appears that Nawaz Sharif had invited Modi to visit Lahore on his way back from Moscow and Afghanistan. The fact that Modi accepted, signals that he is as keen as Nawaz Sharif to break the India-Pakistan stalemate and leave a lasting legacy. It is naturally too early to assume all this, but as foreign minister Sushma Swaraj has said, Narendra Modi has acted like a statesman.
The news of the surprise visit was broken by the Prime Minister himself, when he tweeted: “Looking forward to meeting PM Nawaz Sharif in Lahore today afternoon, where I will drop by on my way back to Delhi.”
“Spoke to PM Nawaz Sharif & wished him on his birthday,” Modi added in another tweet.
Attempt to Change the Narrative
The two leaders appear to have developed a rapport which involves dropping in to wish Sharif. This itself is a forward movement. But how far this will go in solving the complex problems between two countries, which carry decades of bitter historical baggage, is not clear. But the good news is that Modi and Sharif are trying to change the narrative. The atmospherics are right for the foreign secretaries’ meet in January where the nitty-gritty of ties between the two nations will be discussed at length. For now the pointer is that Modi and Sharif are on the same page.
“It is a symbolic gesture, but a good one. Prime Minister Modi understands the importance of repairing ties with Pakistan. Like Vajpayee, he understands the importance of making peace. A breakthrough between India and Pakistan will also make Modi a world beater. His Pakistan policy has been inconsistent, yet he has taken care to keep the iron in the fire. Modi’s latest move will generate goodwill,” says former foreign secretary Salman Haider.
The thaw began with the 30 November meeting between Modi and Sharif in Paris, on the sidelines of the Paris Climate Change summit. This was followed by the hush-hush meeting between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Nasir Janjua in Bangkok on 6 December. The next day, India confirmed that External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj would be attending the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad. While in Pakistan, Swaraj announced the revival of comprehensive dialogue between the two countries.
Modi is Taking a Risk
By stopping over in Pakistan, Modi has shown exemplary courage. Considering that there are strong lobbies in both countries which are against any move at rapproachment, chances of things going terribly wrong, like another terror attack, cannot be ruled out. After all, Vajpayee’s Lahore bus diplomacy ended with Kargil. Prime Minister Modi is aware of that but is willing to make the effort. That effort has to be applauded.
Nothing much will be made public after the two leaders meet, but Modi’s gesture will be well received in Pakistan. Despite repeated invitations, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did not visit the neighbouring country. Ironically, this was mainly because the UPA leadership was forever worried about the reaction of the opposition BJP. During his term as chief minister of Gujarat, Modi did not lose an opportunity to hit out at the Congress party for its soft Pakistan policy and its inability to deal with Islamabad’s terror export to India.
The Congress, which when in government was always looking over its shoulder for the BJP’s reaction, is now paying back in the same coin. The party has criticised Modi on the flip-flops of his Pakistan policy and charged him of secret dealings with Sharif. While the Opposition attack is something the Modi regime can deal with, what is much more difficult would be to manoeuvre around the hardliners within the Sangh Parivar and allies like the Shiv Sena. The Sena has already attacked the prime minister, asking what has changed on the ground for Modi to personally greet Sharif on his birthday.
It would be foolish to expect any major announcement after the brief meeting in Lahore. But the fact that Modi is the only prime minister since Vajpayee to visit Pakistan has to be noted. Former Prime Minister Vajpayee is extremely popular in Pakistan. The general view in Pakistan is that a hardline BJP government in Delhi is best placed to make peace with Pakistan. Many in India also feel that New Delhi needs to talk directly to the Pakistan army, which has the final say in dealings with India. Pakistan’s NSA is a recently retired army general. It was he, and not adviser on foreign affairs to the PM, Sartaj Aziz, who held talks with Doval in Bangkok. As a recently retired general, Nasir Janjua would have direct access to army chief Raheel Sharif. Much of what is happening on the ground today is a result of the NSA’s meet. Prime Minister Modi had made the judgment that it is worth pushing the peace button. It is a gamble Modi has taken; whether it pays off or not remains to be seen.