Even though the success of the anti-BJP alliance in Bihar paid rich dividends to all concerned, most of all to the Congress, the possibility of the experiment being repeated in Uttar Pradesh is unlikely, at least for the moment.
Not only the ruling Samajwadi Party has ruled out any tie-up with bitter rival Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or any other party, the BSP has nixed the alliance talk. And now the Congress, out of the reckoning in Uttar Pradesh’s electoral scenario for years, has expressed reluctance for joining any alliance. Not only this, party general secretary in charge of UP Madhusudan Mistry, has said his party will win 200 seats on its own in the 2017 election for the UP assembly.
The party’s confidence stems from the fact that it won a high number of seats in the recently concluded elections to the Zila and Kshetra Panchayat wards. “Considering this was the first time we supported candidates in nearly 48 percent of the total seats, candidates supported by the Congress did well. Many of them also finished second,” Mistry said at a party function in Lucknow on Saturday.
Surendra Rajput, a spokesman and secretary of the UPCC, said the party under the leadership of state president Nirmal Khatri, had organised several programmes at the village, block, district and state levels. “We have spearheaded agitations on price rise, law and order and other issues. The people have appreciated that it is only our leaders who have suffered police lathi-charge during these agitations,” he added.
Add to that Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive stance against the Modi government, Rajput added, especially the ‘suit-boot’ jibe and the party’s success in forcing the government in withdrawing the Land Bill, had boosted the party workers’ morale. Thirdly, the people were disappointed with the BJP government at the Centre and the SP government in the state. “It is only the Congress that is now considered as the party with a clear agenda for the people.”
While Mistry sounded confident of the Congress prospects, other party leaders were cautiously optimistic about the party’s performance.
“I can say with confidence that our party will certainly win more than 125 seats and the Congress is certainly going to emerge as a major player in Uttar Pradesh,” said Dr Hilal Naqvi, spokesman of the UP Congress. However, he agreed with Mistry’s assertion that the Bihar assembly election results have boosted the morale of the party workers in UP.
“The people of Bihar, especially the minorities, have shown clearly that they have no faith in either the BJP or other parties that openly pursue the communal agenda,” Naqvi said.
In UP, the ruling SP is suffering a severe anti-incumbency sentiment and its popularity graph is sliding very fast. We have reports from the grassroots level that people are disillusioned with SP government’s promises of creating jobs,” he added. As for the BJP, Naqvi remarked it had not only lost much ground in UP but the absence of a face in the party for UP had hurt it badly. “It also suffers from serious factionalism,” he added.
He predicted that the Congress will post sensational results in the state’s urban areas. “I am amazed at the reaction of the people towards the party and I will not be surprised if it fares better in cities,” said Naqvi.
As for the possibilities of any alliance, he said any truck with the SP was out of the question. “We do not want to carry the burden of anti-incumbency. It is only the Congress and the BSP that are the major contenders for 2017. But any tie-up with the BSP is not possible since BSP is an unpredictable partner,” he said.
However, Athar Husain, director of a thinktank – Centre for Objective Research and Development (CORD) – said the Congress was still looking for an alliance with the BSP. “I have definite information that leader of the two parties have already held two round of talks,” he said. “The Congress is saying it is not interested in any alliance simply to create pressure on the BSP. It will surely have nothing to do with the SP but the BSP is still considered by many in the Congress as an alliance partner worth the effort,” he added.
A senior Congress leader, wishing to remain anonymous, feels that Mistry’s optimism is rather far-fetched. “He has mentioned these figures obviously to please some party leaders. Secondly, Rahul’s campaign in UP will need to combine aggression with positivity to convert it into good results. It means the attack on the SP government will also have to be severe. It remains to be seen if the party will do that,” he averred.