Nepalis are scratching their heads, wondering what happened to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian leader the people embraced with much enthusiasm last year. In August, two months after taking office, Modi set out on a visit to Nepal. His mantra ‘neighbourhood first’ was appreciated not just at home but by neighbours too. The visit was the first bilateral in 17 years by an Indian PM and it won hearts and minds of many people usually suspicious of Indian leaders.
Modi pressed the right buttons in August 2014
He connected directly with Nepal and spoke from the heart. “This is the land of Sita and Janak. Nepal-India relations are as old as the Himalayas and the Ganga,” the prime minister, known for his oratory, said. He gave the impression that this was an Indian leader with a difference. His address to the Constituent Assembly was hailed by all. So what happened just one year later for relations to take such a downward slide?
Nepal is confused. Which is the real Modi? The man who charmed everyone when he visited in August, or the man who sees Nepal through the eyes of the Indian-origin Madhesi population settled in plains or the Terai area adjoining Bihar? There is much confusion and speculation over Modi in Kathmandu. India and the PM’s popularity has plummeted to pit bottom in Nepal. There is now talk of the ugly Indian, the neighbourhood bully and all other epithets which gained currency in the past.
Nepal has gone from blaming the Indian foreign office, the arrogance of its bureaucrats to gradually pointing a finger at the PM himself. “He is like every other Indian leader. He is no different from Congress PM Rajiv Gandhi, who blockaded the land-locked country in 1989,” is the talk going around. Is India’s attitude pushing Nepal into the arms of China, is a question worrying India’s strategic community.
Nepalese leaders, from King Birendra downwards had as all small nations sandwiched between Asian giants India and China, used this to its advantage. One reason for the blockade during Rajiv Gandhi’s tenure was King Birendra was planning to import anti-aircraft guns from China. This was also the time when the trade treaty between India and Nepal had to be reworked. Gandhi was roundly criticized for the 13-month blockade which caused unimaginable hardship to the ordinary Nepalese.
The question that Nepal is asking right now is why is Narendra Modi doing this? Was his overture to Nepal in August just a show? Many believed that the PM was well briefed before his first visit to Nepal. “He pushed all the right buttons. He knew exactly what troubled India-Nepal ties and promised to smooth over all that,” said Kanak Mani Dixit, editor-in-chief of the prestigious Himal magazine. Dixit is deeply disappointed: “India is playing with fire. Instead of encouraging the Madhesis it should calm tempers and ensure that this problem is resolved amicably. It is not something that cannot be worked on and solved to the satisfaction of all, he added. “New Delhi will be blamed if the situation takes an uglier turn,” he added. He also said that Nepalis now realise what the Sri Lanka felt about India’s interference in its ethnic problem.
When Nepal was devastated by a severe earthquake in May, India was the first to step in to help. Things went a little sour when jingoism of some sections of Indian media took over. Nepalese were angry with the Indian media but the government and Prime Minister Modi were not touched.
Madhesis and Nepal’s Republican Constitution
India was deeply troubled when the New Republican Constitution of Nepal allegedly short-changed 40 percent of its population living in the plains: the Madhesis and the Tharu ethnic minorities. New Delhi had been urging the Constituent Assembly to bring in an all-inclusive constitution. During his address to the Constituent Assembly, Modi had asked all sections to work together for an inclusive constitution. India invited UCPN (Maoist) chairman and former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel from the Nepali Congress for talks in July, when negotiations on the Constitution were in the final stages.
Each of them assured New Delhi that the Constitution would be fair to all. India has a 1,751 km of open border with Nepal, adjoining both Bihar and UP. Trouble in the Terai will lead to unrest in the border and if matters escalate an exodus into India. The domestic compulsions are also an important factor here.
Blockade plummeting Modi and India’s image
The protests in the plains gave New Delhi the perfect alibi for a blockade. India insists it has no hand in it, but truckers fearing for their safety have refused to ply. Kathmandu rightly believes that India and the Madhesi protesters are hand-in-glove to push Nepal to bring in the two amendments pending in the new Parliament. These amendments will ensure that justice is done to all. So far the politicians are in no hurry. Tension escalated further this week after an Indian youth was killed when Nepalese police fired on a crowd to break up the blockade of the checkpoints in the border town Birgunj. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on the phone to his counterpart in Kathmandu demanding details of the incident.
Modi’s popularity has plummeted because of the hardship ordinary citizens are facing thanks to blockade. There are severe shortages in the country. Land-locked Nepal is dependent on India for getting its imports, and is solely dependent on India for its fuel requirements. There are nine major land crossings where truckers bring in essential supplies. With the movement of tankers restricted, China has stepped in to fill the void. It has pledged 1.3 million litres of fuel which have started arriving to ease the situation. Some fear that China will spread its wings further in Nepal if India continues to remain unpopular.
However, in the long run, it will be difficult for China to fill in the vacuum, because access to Indian through the plains is much easier. The cultural, religious and socio-economic factors also play a major role as thousands of Nepalis choose to work and live in India.
Modi’s unpopularity at the moment in Nepal has nothing to do with him personally but is linked with India’s Nepal policy. While his ratings in Kathmandu may go down, his popularity with the Nepalese of India-origin is soaring. Certainly they want New Delhi to play a role to get them a better deal.
Nepal’s PM Plays the Democracy Card
Nepal’s new Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is echoing the sentiments of the average Nepali when he takes on India. “Why is India rallying behind the four Madhes-based parties,” he asked, adding that it was Nepal’s responsibility to address the grievances of the various agitating groups. “The constitution is not targeted against any country,” he said, adding that it was promulgated with 96 percent of the Constituent Assembly members voting in its favour. Nepal and Oli has a point. India needs to stop sulking and step back a while for tempers to cool. Neither New Delhi nor Kathmandu can afford to allow the current crisis to simmer.
Good sense must prevail on both sides.